War has always meant chaos. For centuries, commanders and civilians alike have experienced what military theorists call “the fog of war” - an inevitable confusion that swirls around any active conflict. Facts that were once clear become murky; rumours spread like wildfire, and the reality on the ground changes just as fast.
But with modern warfare, comes a powerful new weapon to cut through that fog: OSINT. Today, war zone OSINT is changing how we approach and understand conflict. Anyone at war - from NGOs to journalists - can use publicly available open-source data.
So, even as war rages in Ukraine and the Middle East, investigators are using the most unexpected of online tools to verify facts, evince crimes, and even warn innocents of incoming danger. In short, war zone OSINT is saving lives. Let’s see how it’s working on the front line.
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Why OSINT Matters in Modern Warfare
Traditionally, wartime intelligence is the realm of government and military agencies. Information from the front line has to filter through official channels, before it reaches those who don’t have security clearance.
But modern conflict is much more exposed. It takes place both on the ground, and across the digital scape; as millions carry broadcasting kits in their pockets. Each smartphone video, social post, selfie or satellite image can become a piece of vital combat OSINT. With OSINT analysis, investigators can:
- Verify what’s happening on the ground
- Identify the weapons used in strikes
- Track troop movements
- Monitor humanitarian crises
- Expose disinformation and misinformation
- And even prevent conflicts before they start.
For the first time ever, OSINT can give any analyst near-real-time visibility into active conflict zones. For humanitarian orgs, journalists, watchdogs, and good guys in general… war zone OSINT is a gamechanger.
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The First OSINT War: OSINT in Ukraine
The conflict in Ukraine is perhaps the first “OSINT war” in world history. Since fighting began over 10 years ago, analysts worldwide have relied on OSINT Ukraine investigations to document battlefield developments in unprecedented detail.
Even as far back as 2014, OSINT was part of Ukraine’s fight. Investigators honed their skills by identifying Russian involvement in the MH-17 crisis; OSINT evidence showed a commercial Malaysia Airlines jet carrying 298 passengers was downed by a Russian surface-to-air missile.
Since then, online Ukrainian OSINT communities have been using geolocation, chronolocation, and satellite analysis to gather evidence and track the Russian advance. The Eyes on Russia Project has used OSINT to build an interactive map of troop movements and civilian casualties - verifying when and where atrocities occur.
In many cases, OSINT Ukraine analysis has revealed battlefield developments faster than official government announcements. And later, it may be OSINT evidence that helps bring Russia to justice for their war crimes.
High-Risk Work: OSINT in the Middle East
OSINT techniques honed in Ukraine are making their way to the Middle East. During recent conflicts in Gaza, OSINT investigators used social media footage and satellite imagery to identify buildings hit by strikes; presenting a comprehensive case for Israeli bombing of the al-Maghazi al-Jadeed bakery.
However, the Gaza conflict has also exposed the risks of OSINT at war. Bad actors on social media have packaged misinformation as rigorous OSINT work, taking advantage of the “fog of war” to fill the air with fake news.
In turn, Gaza OSINT has also shown the value of good practice: with the al-Ahli Hospital explosion as a case-in-point. While untrained eyes instantly interpreted the footage of the strike as straightforward Israeli aggression, organisations that put in detailed OSINT work - like Human Rights Watch, Forensic Architecture, and the Washington Post - revealed a much more nuanced reality.
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Risk and Reward: Challenges of OSINT in War
Despite being the most powerful weapon in the good guys’ arsenal, OSINT in war comes with risks. Conflict environments are the most difficult digital terrain; here’s what makes them so uniquely challenging. But no matter what, the reward is always worth the risk.
- Disinformation campaigns: Both freelance and state actors will often spread misleading information in war. False facts can disadvantage an opponent; leading them to waste resources, or their civilians to panic. Similarly, falsehoods can disadvantage investigators: manipulated images, recycled footage, and rumours can throw an investigation off.
- Information overload: Well over a million Russian soldiers have been deployed in Ukraine so far - that means over a million smartphone generating information. The enormous volume of data available on conflicts can make things difficult, especially if the war is ongoing or controversial.
- Verification pressure: In fast-moving conflicts, every outlet wants the fastest scoop. There’s the pressure to publish findings quickly - at the risk of making mistakes and publishing misinformation, leading to messy apologies. Responsible OSINT war analysis always prioritises accuracy over speed - better to be right, than be first.
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How OSINT Analysts Verify War Zone Intel
Clearly, one of the biggest challenges in wartime OSINT is verification. Fake news spreads fast under the “fog of war”; whether through deliberate manipulation, propaganda, or genuine mistakes. Here’s how pro OSINT investigators verify frontline intel.
Geolocation
Geolocation OSINT is all about pinning down where in the world something took place. Usually, frontline OSINT analysts will match visual details in images or videos with satellite imagery. They’ll compare landmarks like buildings, roads or terrain features to find where footage was first captured - and if it fits the narrative they’ve been told.
Chronolocation
Like geolocation, but with time; chronolocation OSINT determines when an event took place. Analysts use environmental clues like shadows, weather patterns, and even seasonal features (like leaf litter and flowers), to estimate what time a piece of evidence was created.
Metadata Analysis
Most images or videos generate metadata. This data is easily readable with free online tools (like EXIF.tools), and can reveal the timestamp, GPS location, and even camera settings used to capture the imagery. This analysis isn’t always possible, as social media often strips metadata; but when analysts find footage firsthand, it’s a must.
Cross-Referencing Sources
All good OSINT analysts will compare and contrast multiple sources to find the full truth. They will work with videos, satellite imagery, and even eyewitness accounts to confirm whether a reported event actually occurred - and if it went down exactly as they’ve heard. By combining as many sources as possible, they can reconstruct events with maximum accuracy.
The Future of War Zone OSINT
Open-source intelligence is already changing conflicts - and it’s only getting more crucial. But with the rise of AI, conflict OSINT will get more complex, too. AI analysis is allowing analysts to process more data, faster; yet as Iran war OSINT investigators have discovered, AI generated disinformation is making evidence harder to verify, and the information war ever harder to fight.
As the “fog of war” becomes AI-generated, it’s essential that professional, responsible OSINT stays part of the good guys’ arsenal - so it can keep on changing conflicts, proving crimes, and saving lives.
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